Mexico's NDC: what nationally determined contributions are and how they affect companies

The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are the climate commitments that each country submits under the Paris Agreement of 2015. In them, each nation defines its mitigation and adaptation targets, that is, how much it intends to cut its emissions and how it plans to prepare for the effects of climate change.

Mexico submitted its first NDC in 2015 and has been updating it since. Its current 2030 target is to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 35% against the baseline, and its most recent NDC, the NDC 3.0, introduces an absolute 2035 target for the first time. This article explains what NDCs are, what Mexico's NDC consists of, how it translates into national policies such as the General Climate Change Law, the National Emissions Registry (RENE) and the Emissions Trading System (SCE), and what all of this means for the federal government and, above all, for companies.

What the Paris Agreement NDCs are

NDCs are the heart of the Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015 under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Instead of imposing identical targets on every country, the Agreement asks each one to submit its own national contribution to limit global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.

A central principle is progression: NDCs are reviewed and raised periodically, so that each new version must be more ambitious than the previous one. That is why we speak of NDC 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0. Each country decides its own climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives and reports on its progress to the international community.

Mexico's NDC: the 2030 target

Mexico's NDC covers the whole economy and is expressed as a reduction against a baseline, that is, against the emissions there would be if no action were taken. The target Mexico updated in 2022 is to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 35% by 2030, as a joint effort of all sectors. In gross-emissions terms, that target equals a ceiling of around 644 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e).

This figure was a step up in ambition from the first NDC of 2015, which proposed an unconditional reduction of 22%. Mexico's NDC combines an unconditional component (which the country commits to meet with its own resources) and a conditional component (which depends on receiving international financing and technology transfer).

Mexico's NDC 3.0 and the 2035 target

The Intersecretarial Commission on Climate Change approved the NDC 3.0 on 4 November 2025, and Mexico presented it at COP30, held in Belém, Brazil, in November 2025. The responsible authority is the Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT), led by minister Alicia Bárcena.

The main novelty of the NDC 3.0 is that, for the first time, Mexico adopts an absolute 2035 target covering all sectors. Instead of being expressed only as a percentage against a baseline, the target is set as a ceiling of net emissions, in two ranges:

• Unconditional target: maximum net emissions of 364 to 404 MtCO2e by 2035, with the country's own resources.
• Conditional target: maximum net emissions of 332 to 363 MtCO2e by 2035, conditional on receiving financing and technology transfer.

The NDC 3.0 also introduces a loss and damage component for the first time and ratifies the vision of net-zero emissions by 2050. Below is a comparative summary of Mexico's mitigation targets.

How the NDC translates into national policies

An NDC is not a stand-alone document: it is delivered through each country's legal and institutional framework. In Mexico, the backbone is the General Climate Change Law (LGCC), which creates the instruments through which the federal government turns international commitments into concrete action.

Special Climate Change Program (PECC)

The Special Climate Change Program (PECC) is the planning instrument that translates the NDC targets into objectives, lines of action and responsible parties by sector over a given period. It is the bridge between the country's target and the public policies that make it possible.

National Emissions Registry (RENE)

The National Emissions Registry (RENE), created by the LGCC, is the database that makes it possible to know who emits and how much. It requires establishments whose annual emissions exceed 25,000 tonnes of CO2 equivalent to report their direct and indirect emissions, in sectors such as energy, industry, transport, agriculture and livestock, waste, and commerce and services. Reporting is done through the Annual Operating Certificate (COA), in the period from 1 July to 30 November.

Emissions Trading System (SCE)

The Emissions Trading System (SCE) is the first regulated carbon market in Latin America and works as a cap-and-trade emissions trading system (ETS). Its operating phase was expected to begin in 2023, after a pilot phase. It covers installations in the energy and industry sectors with annual direct emissions equal to or greater than 100,000 tonnes of CO2 from fixed sources. For these large emitters, the reporting period (dual RENE/SCE scope) runs from 1 March to 30 June.

What the NDC means for Mexican companies

Although NDCs are country commitments, in practice they rest on what companies do, since they generate much of the emissions. For the private sector in Mexico, the NDC and its instruments have several direct implications.

Measure and report emissions

If an organisation exceeds the RENE threshold, it is required to measure and report its emissions through the COA. Even below the threshold, calculating your own emissions inventory is the starting point for any emissions reduction strategy and for responding to customers and investors.

Take part in the carbon market

Large energy and industry emitters that exceed the SCE threshold must take part in the carbon market: monitor, report and verify their emissions and manage the allowances allocated to them. This turns every tonne avoided into economic value and creates a direct incentive to invest in efficiency and decarbonisation.

Pressure from the value chain and international customers

Beyond the legal obligation, market pressure is growing. Customers, investors and international value chains increasingly ask their suppliers to measure and reduce their carbon footprint, including scope 3 emissions. Mechanisms such as the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) add a cost to carbon-intensive products exported to the bloc, directly affecting Mexican exporters.

Alignment with sustainability reporting

Measuring emissions also connects with financial transparency. In Mexico, listed issuers already adopt the IFRS S1 and S2 standards for disclosing sustainability- and climate-related information. Placing the NDC within the wider Mexican framework helps prepare for compliance; the overview of environmental laws, NOM and key certifications in Mexico is useful for this.

Frequently asked questions

What are NDCs?

They are the Nationally Determined Contributions, the climate commitments each country submits under the Paris Agreement within the UNFCCC framework. They include mitigation and adaptation targets and are updated periodically under the principle of progression.

What is Mexico's NDC target?

Its 2030 target, updated in 2022, is to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 35% against the baseline, around 644 gross MtCO2e. The NDC 3.0, presented in 2025, adds an absolute 2035 target of maximum net emissions of 364 to 404 MtCO2e (unconditional) and 332 to 363 MtCO2e (conditional).

How does the NDC affect my company?

If you exceed the RENE (25,000 tCO2e) or SCE (100,000 t of direct CO2) thresholds, you have reporting obligations and, where applicable, obligations to take part in the carbon market. In addition, even if you stay below the thresholds, your customers and value chain are likely to ask you to measure and reduce your carbon footprint.

What is the NDC 3.0?

It is Mexico's third NDC update, approved on 4 November 2025 and presented at COP30. For the first time it sets an absolute 2035 target in net emissions, introduces a loss and damage component and ratifies the vision of net-zero emissions by 2050.

Measure and reduce your emissions with Manglai

Meeting Mexico's NDC, or getting ahead of its obligations, starts with knowing your emissions. With Manglai you can calculate and manage your organisation's carbon footprint, check whether you exceed the RENE or SCE thresholds and plan reductions with verifiable data, so you reach your climate obligations with your information in order.